NZ: Job ads fell 1.0% m/m in July - ANZ

Sharon Zollner, Senior Economist at ANZ, notes that New Zealand’s ANZ job ads fell 1.0% m/m in July (seasonally adjusted) off a record high.

Key Quotes

“Looking through the monthly noise, job ads growth has slowed to just 0.5% q/q. That moderation is reflected in annual job growth easing from a peak of 19.6% in January to 12.2% in July (3-month average). That’s a turning point.”

“Is labour demand coming off the boil or are workers simply becoming too difficult to find, with firms are giving up on advertising and looking at alternative means? With skilled staff the biggest problem holding back firms (according to our Small Business Monitor), it’s looking more like the latter. There is not a pool of suitable labour for most firms despite the unemployment rate being 4.8%.”

“That’s a classic late-cycle challenge and signals pressure for wage growth to rise.”

“Despite Auckland job ads falling for three months straight, it remains the strongest of the three main centres in annual growth terms (10.4%), but is now lagging the national average. Wellington and Canterbury job ads also fell in July. The less-urbanised regions are still experiencing stronger annual job ad growth than any of the three main centres.”

“The construction, utilities, manufacturing and transport sectors continue to be the largest drivers of total job ads growth. The service sector is also contributing strongly, as is retail and tourism, and government.”