Too much optimism in NZD? - Nomura

We still think a large degree of optimism is priced into the NZD near current levels. 

Key Quotes:

"We prefer to express a tactical negative NZD bias via an unequally weighted basket against currencies where: (a) the macroeconomic and monetary policy impulses are stronger and more fundamentally entrenched, such as CAD (20%) and EUR (30%); (b) positioning and sentiment appear extended, such as USD (30%); and (c) in pairs that are historically interest rate sensitive and would benefit from a relative re-pricing in RBNZ expectations given the upbeat views of its own central bank, such as AUD (20%)."

"We are targeting NZD/CAD (currently 0.9350) to decline to 0.9170, NZD/USD (currently 0.7380) to decline to 0.7200, and for EUR/NZD (currently 1.5970) and AUD/NZD (currently 1.0730) to rise to 1.6350 and 1.0910 respectively. We would hold stops in NZD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD and AUD/NZD at 0.9470, 1.0575, 1.5750 and 0.7500 respectively."