US non-farm payrolls expected to rise 180k in August - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank suggest that an eventful week will conclude with the US publishing monthly Employment Report at 14:30CET and non-farm payrolls which are expected to rise 180k in August, down from 209k in July will grab the headlines.

Key Quotes

“The main focus is likely to be on average hourly earnings for any signals that demand-led pressure on inflation may increase in the coming months. Despite unemployment falling below the Fed’s estimate of the NAIRU, wage growth has been sluggish and only a modest increase to 2.6% y/y in August from 2.5% y/y in July is anticipated. An upside surprise to earnings could potentially reignite market expectations that the Fed may deliver a Christmas hike (the implied probability of a hike in December is still low at 33.8%). Our Fed watcher Philip Marey continues to argue that the FOMC will not raise rates further this year as inflation will continue to disappoint. The final estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and the ISM Manufacturing report will be released later in the afternoon.”