GBP/JPY risk reversals: Bull trap?

GBP/JPY has opened the week above the 200-DMA and rose to 143.06; the highest level since August 16. 

The repeated failure on the part of the bears to push the pair below 141.00 handle last week finally made way for gains above the 200-DMA. However, the sentiment in the options market remains bearish.

1-month 25-delta risk reversals

Source: Reuters

  • The chart shows the rebound from the August 24 low of 139.30 is accompanied by a drop in the risk reversals gauge from -1.725 to -2.1. 
  • The decline in the risk reversals gauge indicates the demand for Put options outstrips the demand for Calls.  The sentiment is clearly bearish and points to a bull trap in the GBP/JPY cross. 

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