US: ISM manufacturing likely to post a slight decline from 58.8 to 58.2 - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that the US ISM manufacturing report for September will kick off the week and they are looking for a slight decline from 58.8 to 58.2 (consensus: 58.0), as most regional surveys were solid for the month—including the Dallas Fed Survey which reached a 7-month high despite the disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey.

Key Quotes

“58.2 is an objectively strong PMI, and if our forecast is realized it would underpin above-trend growth for Q3 and suggest that the hurricane impacts may be on the lower-end of estimates. The only other US release will be the August construction spending data which the market expects to rebound modestly (consensus: +0.4% m/m) after a 0.6% decline in July. The only Fed speaker on the calendar is Dallas Fed President Kaplan, who will be participating in a Q&A session at 2 PM (ET).”