US: Expect a jump in payroll this week - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ expect a jump in US payroll this week and some deceleration in wage growth, as last month’s hurricane-related effects are likely to revert in October.

Key Quotes

“Whatever the result, it won’t be enough to shift the Fed’s bias, as it will be hard to separate the underlying trend from the noise. Strength in momentum should be confirmed, with the ISM surveys and consumer confidence remaining close to their multi-year highs; while ongoing weakness in core PCE inflation won’t be a surprise. This ‘goldilocks’ environment is certainly supportive of risk appetite, but it will probably keep investors sceptical about the extent of Fed’s tightening next year. This means policy rhetoric and news from Washington will be more important than data for the USD.”