When are the Eurozone flash CPIs & GDP and how could they affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone CPIs & GDP flash estimate overview

Eurostat will publish the euro zone's inflation first estimate for September at 10.00GMT today. Consumer prices are expected to remain flat at 1.5% on a yearly basis, same as that seen in the previous readout. While the core figures are expected to edge lower to 1.2% in the reported month.

At the same time, the advanced GDP figures in the Eurozone for the third quarter will be reported. The consensus amongst traders expects the bloc’s economic growth to decelerate to 0.5% inter-quarter in Q3, while on an annualized basis, is expected to tick higher to 2.4% versus 2.3% growth seen previously.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

If both the key macro data come in much weaker-than-expected, it could trigger fresh selling in the Euro, knocking-off the EUR/USD pair back towards 1.1600 support, below which doors would open up for a test of three-month lows of 1.1575.

On the other hand, a positive surprise could provide extra legs to the pullback in the Euro, which could help the rate to extend the recovery above 1.1650 barrier en route 1.1700/02 (round number/ 10-DMA).

Key notes

Eurozone flash CPI to fall in October - HSBC

Eurozone growth seen at 0.5% q/q in Q3 - HSBC

Eurozone: Q3 GDP and inflation in focus – Nomura

About Eurozone CPIs & GDP flash estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).