Canada: Existing home sales likely rose in November – BMO CM

Canada’s existing home sales likely rose in November, breaking a seven-month losing streak, according to Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian Rates & Macro Strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

Key Quotes

“A big improvement in Toronto provided a lift, with sales down about 13%, a significant move from the 35% average decline over the past five months. The mix of activity has changed from the booming sales seen earlier this year, with condos now driving the gains instead of single-family homes. A similar dynamic is playing out in Vancouver, where sales continue to bounce back, rising more than 20% y/y, while Fraser Valley activity surged nearly 40%.”

“Activity continues to pick up in Ottawa and Montreal, while the Prairies saw some improvement as well. Don’t be surprised if activity stays firm in the usually quiet month of December, as buyers try to get in ahead of the mortgage-rule changes that take effect on January 1, 2018. Overall, sales look to rise 2% y/y, average prices likely increased 5% y/y, while the quality adjusted MLS HPI is expected to decelerate to 9.5% y/y, the slowest pace this year, and down from April’s 19.7% record high.”