Canada: Headline retail sales to post a 0.6% advance in October - TDS

Analysts at TD expects Canada’s headline retail sales to post a 0.6% advance in October, led by a solid pickup in core spending.

Key Quotes

“Auto sales should see little change which will exert a modest drag on the headline print and leave ex-auto sales up 0.8%, while gasoline station sales will face a headwind from lower prices at the pump. Core retail sales should benefit from continued gains in the labour market and the persistence of wealth effects, as demonstrated by the strong increase in Q3 consumer spending.”

“On a volumes basis, retail sales should underperform the nominal print though we still expect a positive contribution to industry-level GDP, which we forecast to rise 0.2% m/m in October.”