Next week's key events in EMEA - ING

Analysts at ING share their view on next week’s key data and events in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

In Poland, we expect CPI to decelerate from 2.5% YoY to 2%, driven mainly by lower food and fuel prices. Core inflation is likely to remain relatively weak (0.9% YoY), and we expect CPI to stay lower over the next quarter. That’s because there has been no increase in administered prices (the electrical energy tariff for 2018 was lowered slightly, and gas prices should remain stable) as well as a further moderation in food prices.. All in all, temporarily lower inflation and wage growth should reduce pressure on the MPC to hike rates.

December also looks to have been a lower month for inflation in Turkey. Annual inflation increased further in November, where the prices of core goods and energy remained under pressure following the adverse effects of currency weakness. But this time, we expect the annual figure to decline to 11.7% in December, and we see headline inflation falling further in early 2018 as base effects ease.