NZ: Q4 CPI likely rose by 0.4% - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac estimate that NZ consumer prices rose by 0.4% in the December quarter, led by higher fuel prices and other transport costs.

Key Quotes

“This would keep the annual inflation rate at 1.9%, very near the 2% midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s target range. Excluding the volatile food and fuel categories, we expect annual inflation to remain at a more modest 1.6%.”

“Our forecast is slightly higher than the Reserve Bank’s pick of 0.3% for the quarter, although the difference is in the more persistent non–tradable categories where an upside surprise would be more significant.”

“The December quarter release will incorporate Stat NZ’s three–yearly reweighting of the basket of goods and services that make up the CPI. However, the new weights have had very little impact on our inflation forecast.”