USD/JPY: downside overcooked; where next?

• USD/JPY: bulls battle back.
• USD/JPY: still heavily bearish?

The yen was testing waters in NY below the 109 handle vs the dollar with USD/JPY making a low of 108.996 from 110.34 the high, but in Tokyo, the bears have run for cover with a pullback to the hourly 21 SMA at 109.42 as the dollar stabilises across the board. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 109.42, up 0.27% on the day, having posted a daily high at 109.49 and low at 109.11.

USD/JPY has been a one-way bet taking a trip through a number of key areas and barrier levels while the greenback keeps getting hit on the offer in an environment of higher US stocks, bonds, domestic political and debt concerns while other central banks are playing catch up rhetoric with the Fed. However, the BoJ was not conforming to some expectations yet the yen still rallied this week. 

Dollar hit again on Mnuchin

The most recent catalyst in this latest wave of selling brought on by comments from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.  "Whilst in Davos, he noted that “Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.”  While Mnuchin was only stating the obvious, Treasury Secretaries since Robert Rubin have never deviated from the strong dollar mantra," analysts at Brown Brother Harriman explained.

USD/JPY levels

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that technically, the pair remains on a bearish path, with daily readings favouring additional declines from current levels. "Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the downside is also favoured, despite technical indicators entered the oversold territory, as they give no signs of changing course as they continue grinding lower.  In the same chart, the price has moved way below its moving averages, which means that the possibility of an upward corrective movement can't be dismissed. A break below 109.00 will expose 2017 yearly low at 107.31."