US and Canada: What to watch next week - NBF

Analysts at National Bank of Canada presented next week Canadian and US key reports with a preview. 

Key Quotes:

“In the U.S., the consumer price index could have increased 0.4% m/m in January as gasoline prices rose sharply. Nevertheless, we expect the year-on-year rate to drop two ticks to 1.9%. The core CPI, for its part, could have increased 0.2% m/m. That would translate into a one tick decline of the 12-month rate at 1.7%.”

“Retail sales may have stalled in January, as gains for gasoline stations (on account of rising pump prices) may have been offset by falling auto sales. Also in January, industrial output may have retreated a little, hampered by the manufacturing sector which saw its production fall slightly in the month according to the ISM manufacturing survey. Utilities may also have contributed negatively to overall output after a very strong month in December (+5.6%). Overall, industrial production may have slid 0.3% m/m. We’ll also get housing data for January, with an increase expected for housing starts following an outsized decline the prior month.”

“The first clues on the state of the manufacturing sector in February will be available with the publication of the Empire State’s manufacturing survey. Finally, January’s edition of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released.”

“In Canada, a relatively light data week will feature manufacturing sales for December. These may have dropped 1.5%, in line with shrinking exports of factory goods. Two important indicators of the housing market will also be released for January: existing home sales and the Teranet-National Bank Home Price Index.”

“Elsewhere in the world, December’s data on industrial production and international trade will be available in the Eurozone. In Japan, we’ll get the first estimate of Q4 GDP.”