21 Feb 2018
AUD/USD risk reversals continue to retrace bearish bias
- Demand for AUD puts weakens despite a drop in the AUD/USD spot.
The AUD/USD pair left a lower high of 0.7989 on the daily chart on Feb. 16 and was last seen attempting a break below the ascending 50-day moving average level of 0.7871.
However, the decline from 0.7989 to 0.7871 has not revived interest in AUD puts (bearish bets), the AUD/USD risk reversals indicate.
The one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at 0.875 AUD puts vs. 0.925 AUD puts on Feb. 16 and 1.225 AUD puts on Feb. 9. The drop in indicates the premium claimed by AUD puts over AUD calls has dropped. The diverging risk reversals indicate the investors are not concerned about the decline in the AUD spot.
One-month 25 delta risk reversals (AUD1MRR)