Australia: Cashless Retail Sales Index shows improvement in January - NAB

The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index for Australia shows improvement in January following a weak December, notes the research team at NAB.

Key Quotes

“Mapping through to the official ABS measure of retail sales suggests a rise of 0.4% in January after the decline of 0.5% in December and a sharper rise of 1.3% in November. These figures however should be interpreted with caution as they are impacted by changing seasonal patterns, including the shift in the timing of large retail sales which historically have occurred from Boxing Day onwards into January. Consumers now have access to sales earlier in the year with the introduction of Black Friday sales to Australia.”

“Looking through the monthly volatility, the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index has continued its moderate slowdown into January in terms of annual growth. Yearly growth in NAB’s cashless retail index was 7.5% yoy, compared with much slower growth in the ABS measure. The weaker result this month was driven by decreases across all categories except ‘other retailing’ which held steady. NAB’s series does not include cash payments but includes a larger share of online purchases, a difference which may become more critical as a greater share of holiday season sales shopping shifts online.”

“Looking specifically at the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index, spending at cafes, restaurants & takeaways remains the fastest growing category (19.3% yoy). Spending on ‘other retailing’ (7.8% yoy), and household goods (7.7% yoy) is also solid, while spending on food has slowed (4.7% yoy). Meanwhile, clothing & footwear sales are growing at a meeker rate (2.5% yoy), and spending at department stores has declined (-3.1% yoy).”

“Spending growth has pulled back slightly across the states. NSW (8.3% yoy) and Victoria (7.7% yoy) remain in the lead, with South Australia (6.9% yoy), Queensland (6.3% yoy) and the ACT (6.2% yoy) not far behind. While WA remains the laggard, although the gap continues to narrow (5.0% yoy).”

“The NAB Cashless Retail Index is broader than the NAB Online Retail Index and measures all cashless retail spending by consumers using debit and credit cards (both in person and online), BPAY and Paypal. The index is derived from personal transaction data from NAB platforms (around 2 million transactions per day) and offers a 2-3 week lead on ABS retail trade data.”