UK: Key economic data ahead – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura provide a brief preview of the key macro data slated for release from the UK docket later today.

Key Quotes:

“UK Feb Manufacturing PMI: The headline index fell to a more than six month low in January, though at over 55 it remains 3.5 points above its long-run average.

Our forecast is for a consolidation in the headline index broadly around current levels in February as output and orders are supported by global growth and a weak currency (despite the 6% trade-weighted rally over the last six months).

BOE household borrowing data: In December there was a fall in the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase to its lowest since the start of 2015 (to 61k during the month).

Approvals are, unsurprisingly, closely correlated with net lending data with an optimal lag of around three months. We expect some decline in net lending over the coming months on account of this, but would not be surprised to see a small uptick in approvals after their sharp December fall.”