AUD/NZD lifting from 1.07 as Rate Statement looms

  • Aussie data beats give the AUD a much-needed boost.
  • RBA interest rate slated for Tuesday, expected to remain on hold going forward.

The Aussie is lifting following a largely positive data drop, and the AUD/NZD pair is currently trading on the top side, near 1.0740.

A slew of low-tier data for the Aussie dropped today with notable upside beats to month-over-month Building Permits coming out at 17% versus the forecast 4.0%, a wide jump over the previous -20% reading, and Company Gross Operating Profits showing a 2.2% increase, much higher than the anticipated -2.2%.

Overall market participation for the AUD is going to remain low until Tuesday, with Australia institutions shuttered to celebrate Labour Day, and upside potential for the Aussie is expected to remain capped and markets widely expect the AUD to drift lower through 2018 and 2019 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) grapples with non-existent inflation.

The RBA looks set to stand pat on interest rates as growth in Australia's economy proves elusive in the face of record-high levels of household debt, suppressed wage growth, and a lopsided housing market. Further details may come when the RBA drops their Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT, with RBA governor Philip Lowe slated to give a speech later that day at 21:35 ahead of Aussie GDP data at 00:30 Wednesday, where hopes of a beat to expectations remain thin.

The Kiwi is looking at a thin week for macro data, with nothing notable on the cards until Electronic Retail Sales figures drop late Thursday at 21:45. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) finds itself in a similar boat as the RBA, with economic figures continuing to push expectations for a rate increase further out, though the NZD's outlook appears to be sunnier than the AUD's, and less at risk of taking punishment at the hands of President Donald Trump's promised steel and aluminum tariffs, which could add heavily to the Aussie's already declining position as the Australian economy is heavily dependent on metal exports.

AUD/NZD Technicals

Daily candles have the pair still trading in bearish territory after declining through February, though H4 charts show potential for a soft double bottom from 1.0660; Intraday support is coming from 1.0695 and 1.0660, with resistance at 1.0770 and 1.0825.

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