AUD/NZD kicks off new week on the high side following NFP Friday

  • Aussie gained on risk appetite, boosted by NFP and dissolving trade war fears.
  • Quiet week ahead with thin data schedule, AUD on holidays for Monday.

The AUD/NZD is holding at the high end following Friday's rally and is trading around 1.0765 in Monday markets.

The Aussie lifted against the Kiwi on Friday on a boost in risk appetite spurred on by a clean beat for US NFP figures that saw risk-based assets climb to end a week riddled with swings in sentiment as markets grapple with inflation fears and a trade war brewing as countries decide how to react to Donald Trump's tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum crossing the border into the US. Both the AUD and the NZD gained on the NFP market boost, but the Aussie was able to capitalize further and lift against the Kiwi to finish off the week.

The pair gapped lower to kick off the new week but the gap is closing quickly and volumes are geared for a quiet start to the new week with the Australian markets closed in observance of Labour Day. The macro calendar is looking thin for both currencies, with the low-tier NZ Food Price Index numbers at 21:45 GMT today, followed by Aussie Home Loans data early Tuesday at 00:30 GMT.

Both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have been in a rut as growth expectations for both economies continue to lag well behind global trends. The Aussie is poised to decline steadily heading into the future, much to the pleasure of the RBA who fear an overvalued Australian Dollar may impede growth potential, though market pressure may alleviate for now following Australian PM Michael Turnbull's announcement over the weekend that Australia would be granted an exemption from Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs that come into effect two weeks from now. 

AUD/NZD Technicals

The pair continues to struggle to make new ground as the Aussie slowly drifts lower, and Daily candles show the AUD/NZD lacking bullish conviction trading mostly sideways for the month of March. H4 charts show the pair constrained by February's high and low, and the slow sink looks set to continue for the Aussie. Support is currently sitting at the last swing low of 1.0705 and February's low of 1.0655, with resistance coming from the 34-day EMA at 1.0785 and the January low of 1.0837.

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