GBP/USD gearing up for another run at 1.39 on data-light Monday
- Friday's 'hidden miss' for NFP despite 313k headline is capping the USD's strength.
- Thin calendar for Monday leaves markets exposed to swings in risk sentiment.
Action in the GBP/USD is tight in the early Monday markets but the Sterling is pushing up to test near 1.3860 ahead of Monday's London session.
The Sterling caught a small lift on Friday to continue trading into March's consolidation. US Non-Farm Payrolls widely beat the forecast 200k, coming in at 313k giving a boost to equities and bond yields, although the USD waffled as data within the jobs report showed disappointing wage growth figures, leaving the inflation debate to continue onward in the coming weeks.
The Monday economic calendar is a quiet affair with no macro events for the UK, although the US will be seeing the Monthly Budget Statement for February. Market expectations are pricing in a -$222.6B USD deficit for the federal government's operating budget, a sharp decline from the previous period's $49B surplus.
Tuesday will see the UK's Budget Report at 11:30 GMT, and will include growth estimates, GDP forecasts, and spending and borrowing expectations for the fiscal year to come, and traders can be expected to keep a close eye on the figures presented before the UK heads into Brexit next March. Tuesday will also bring US CPI figures for February, where analysts are expecting a moderate 0.2% improvement in core month-on-month figures versus the previous period's 0.3%.
GBP/USD Technicals
The pair is congesting around the 34 EMA on Daily candles, struggling to develop upward momentum after February's decline from a January high of 1.4344. Last week may have seen a higher low priced in on H4 charts, but declining highs for most of 2018 are dragging down bullish potential in the technicals. Current Support is coming from Friday's swing low at 1.3780 and March's low of 1.3710, while resistance is priced in from last week's high of 1.3930 and the recent swing high near 1.4065.