When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales data is expected to rise 0.4% over the month in February, 1.3% on an annualized basis, as against a lower than expected m-o-m growth of 0.1% in the previous month. Meanwhile, core retail sales, excluding fuel, are also expected to climb 0.4% m-o-m but come down to 1.2% on yearly basis. The report will be published later this session at 0930 GMT.

Deviation impact

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A better than expected UK retail sales data could offer fresh bullish impetus and assist the pair to move beyond the 1.4200 handle. Should the data disappoint, the pair could revert back to 1.4140 level, albeit the fall is likely to be limited as investors would prefer to wait for the latest BoE monetary policy update, due later today. 

Key Notes

   •  GBP/USD Forecast: could move beyond 1.42 handle, focus shifts to UK retail sales/BoE

   •  How to trade the UK Retail Sales with GBP/USD

About the UK retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.