USD shorts extended, EUR longs surge - Rabobank

According to IMM net speculators’ positioning as at April 17, 2018, short USD positions extended for the second consecutive week, though they held below their February levels. 

Key Quotes

“Higher US treasury yields may prevent further negative sentiment in the USD in the next set of data.”

“EUR longs have risen to a new recent high. Hawkish remarks from an ECB official earlier in the month prompted some support for the single currency. The next focus is this week’s ECB policy meeting.”

“Net GBP longs have risen to their strongest level since July 2014. Although a drop in speculation of a BoE May rate hike may knock the pound in the next set of data, speculation that cable tends to do well in April may offer continued support.”

“Net JPY positions have been back in positive territory for three consecutive weeks. Fears of trade wars, concerns about a military conflict between the US and Russia in Syria and domestic concerns regarding an Abe linked property scandal have supported the safe haven JPY. Looking ahead, a calming of tensions on the Korean peninsula and hopes for a compromise between the US and China on trade may reduce support for the JPY.”

“CHF net shorts edged lower last week. They remain only about half the size of the shorts registered in late January. Talk of a CHF selling linked to the fresh US sanctions on Russia have been impacting the spot market.”

“CAD shorts edged a little lower. Focus have been on the BoC although oil prices, Nafta and trade wars also remain in view. AUD shorts have grown surged last week as iron ore prices dropped.”