US CPI: Consensus is for a +0.2% mom core and headline print – Deutsche Bank

US CPI report for May will be out this afternoon and along with tomorrow’s PPI are the last big data prints that the Fed will have before their meeting, suggests the analysis team at Deutsche Bank.

Key Quotes

“The consensus today is for a +0.2% mom core and headline print. The former is also expected to nudge up one-tenth to +2.2% yoy. That +0.2% monthly consensus estimate should be fairly familiar as this is now the 32nd consecutive month that we’ve had such a forecast on the street. For those wondering, only 17 of them have proven to be correct with most missing on the downside.”

“Our US economists also expect the core to come in at +0.2% as they anticipate some payback from unusual weakness last month in categories such as airfares as well as new and used vehicles. Our colleagues actually expect the annual rate to rise to +2.3% yoy which would be the highest since January 2017. All that to look forward to later.”