NZ: Retail sales volumes rose 1.1% in Q2 - ANZ

Liz Kendall, Senior Economist at ANZ, notes that New Zealand’s retail sales volumes rose 1.1% in Q2, versus market expectations of 0.3% q/q, following an upwardly-revised modest increase of 0.3% in Q1, bringing annual growth from 2.8% to 3.1%.

Key Quotes         

“In nominal terms, spending was up 1.3% over the quarter.”

“Today’s release was stronger than expected, but in trend terms retail spending has moderated into 2018. In per capita terms, real spending increased 0.8% after falling 0.3% in the March quarter. In annual terms, per capita spending is up 1.1%, compared with more solid rates seen last year (3.6% y/y in June 2017).”

“Today’s print presents upside risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 0.6% q/q in Q2. However, there is much more information to gather and we will update our pick as more pieces of the puzzle roll in.”

“We expect consumption (and retail spending growth) will be modest from here.”