16 Apr 2014
China Q1 GDP: What to expect? - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Zhiwei Zhang, Economist at Nomura, expects today's China Q1 GDP to have slowed to 7.3% YoY, an outcome in line with Reuters poll.
Key Quotes
"The March money and credit data are in line with other recent signs of slower growth momentum."
"We maintain our view that GDP slowed to 7.3% y-o-y in Q1 and will slow further to 7.1% in Q2, partly due to weak momentum in the property sector, and continue to believe that the government will have to ease policy further, particularly on the monetary side."
"Without a reserve requirement ratio (RR) cut, M2 growth is likely to slow further, with GDP growth possibly dropping below 7% in Q2 or Q3."
"We continue to expect a 50bp RRR cut in Q2 – likely in late May or June, when we expect activity data to show further weakness – and again in Q3."
Key Quotes
"The March money and credit data are in line with other recent signs of slower growth momentum."
"We maintain our view that GDP slowed to 7.3% y-o-y in Q1 and will slow further to 7.1% in Q2, partly due to weak momentum in the property sector, and continue to believe that the government will have to ease policy further, particularly on the monetary side."
"Without a reserve requirement ratio (RR) cut, M2 growth is likely to slow further, with GDP growth possibly dropping below 7% in Q2 or Q3."
"We continue to expect a 50bp RRR cut in Q2 – likely in late May or June, when we expect activity data to show further weakness – and again in Q3."