South Africa: Surprise Q3 GDP numbers - TDS

South Africa’s Q3 GDP growth came out at 1.1% Y/Y, well above the consensus of 0.5% and up from the prior 0.4%, points out the research team at TD Securities.

Key Quotes

“On a Q/Q annualised basis Q3 growth was 2.2%, ahead of the consensus of 1.9%, and up from -0.4% in Q2, which itself was revised up from -0.7%. On an annualised Q/Q basis Manufacturing was +7.5% and Mining -8.8%, both consistent with what we expected based on higher frequency data. Agriculture was +6.5%, showing some recovery after two very weak quarters.”

“So today's data shows the economy moving out of recession in Q3, and may keep Moody's from changing the outlook to negative for the time being. That said, for now the underlying growth trend still remains weak.”