1 May 2014
What to watch for on the day ahead - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, notes the upcoming risk events for this Thursday, a day in which many financial centers will be closed due to 'Labour Day'.
Key Quotes
"Speculation over Australia’s federal budget on 13 May will be intensified by the release (2pm Syd/noon Sing/HK) of the Commission of Audit report which will have 86 recommendations, some of which will be adopted in the budget. Australia’s data calendar is still second tier but not empty. We will see the Apr AiG manufacturing PMI (no forecast, Mar 47.9), Apr house prices from RP Data-Rismark, which should be quite a bit softer than March’s 2.3% m/m surge and Q1 import and export prices. We look for 2.2% q/q on imports, 2.4% on export prices, much of this due to lower AUD on the quarter."
"Many countries have a public holiday today, including Germany, France and all major Asian financial centres. However, we will still see China’s Apr official manufacturing PMI (11am Syd/9am local). This is a much broader survey of manufacturing firms, sampling 3000 versus around 420 for the HSBC/Markit version. Consensus is 50.5 versus March’s 50.3, with this series running consistently stronger than the HSBC measure (48.3 on ‘flash’ Apr survey). It has not printed under 50 since Sep 2012."
"Fed Chair Yellen speaks to community bankers from 8:30am NY time. Such a forum often means little on monetary policy but it will be hard for her to avoid the topic the day after the FOMC meeting. The US data calendar is busy again. Initial weekly jobless claims are seen ticking down to 320k, while the main focus of March personal income and spending data should be the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Consensus is 0.2% m/m, 1.2% y/y. The Apr manufacturing ISM is seen rising to 54.2 from 53.7, which might be a touch optimistic. Finally we will see Mar construction spending, seen up 0.5% m/m but with any major surprise having implications for revisions of the just-released Q1 GDP."
Key Quotes
"Speculation over Australia’s federal budget on 13 May will be intensified by the release (2pm Syd/noon Sing/HK) of the Commission of Audit report which will have 86 recommendations, some of which will be adopted in the budget. Australia’s data calendar is still second tier but not empty. We will see the Apr AiG manufacturing PMI (no forecast, Mar 47.9), Apr house prices from RP Data-Rismark, which should be quite a bit softer than March’s 2.3% m/m surge and Q1 import and export prices. We look for 2.2% q/q on imports, 2.4% on export prices, much of this due to lower AUD on the quarter."
"Many countries have a public holiday today, including Germany, France and all major Asian financial centres. However, we will still see China’s Apr official manufacturing PMI (11am Syd/9am local). This is a much broader survey of manufacturing firms, sampling 3000 versus around 420 for the HSBC/Markit version. Consensus is 50.5 versus March’s 50.3, with this series running consistently stronger than the HSBC measure (48.3 on ‘flash’ Apr survey). It has not printed under 50 since Sep 2012."
"Fed Chair Yellen speaks to community bankers from 8:30am NY time. Such a forum often means little on monetary policy but it will be hard for her to avoid the topic the day after the FOMC meeting. The US data calendar is busy again. Initial weekly jobless claims are seen ticking down to 320k, while the main focus of March personal income and spending data should be the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Consensus is 0.2% m/m, 1.2% y/y. The Apr manufacturing ISM is seen rising to 54.2 from 53.7, which might be a touch optimistic. Finally we will see Mar construction spending, seen up 0.5% m/m but with any major surprise having implications for revisions of the just-released Q1 GDP."