USD/TRY tests the 200-day SMA near 5.28, fresh 2-day lows

• The Turkish Lira gains extra ground to the 5.26 area vs. US Dollar.
• CBRT lowered its 2019/2020 inflation forecast.
• The 200-day SMA around 5.2800 remains a key level.

The Turkish currency is picking up extra pace on wednesday, forcing USD/TRY to drop and clinch news 2-day lows in the 5.26 region albeit giving away some gains afterwards.

USD/TRY weaker post-CBRT report

The pair has managed to drop below the key 200-day SMA just above the 5.2800 handle earlier today, albeit finding some strong support in the 5.2600 region, fresh 2-day lows.

In fact, TRY is trading on a firm note today following the positive performance of crude oil prices, with the barrel of European reference Brent crude advancing to the $62.00 region.

Also supporting TRY, the CBRT published its Inflation Report earlier in the day. The central bank now sees consumer prices rising 14.6% at end-2019 (from 15.2%) and 8.2% by end-2020 (from 9.3%), backed on a stronger TRY and projected lower oil prices.

Furthermore, CBRT Governor Cetinkaya defended once again the tight monetary policy conditions until signs of convincing drop in inflation figures emerge.

USD/TRY key levels

At the moment the pair is losing 0.60% at 5.2745 and a break below 5.2605 (low Jan.30) would expose 5.2459 (2019 low Jan.24) and then 5.2028 (low Dec.19 2018). On the upside, the next resistance is located at 5.3274 (55-day SMA) wseconded by 5.3619 (21-day SMA) and finally 5.5440 (high Jan.9).