NZ: Difficult to gauge the pulse of the migration cycle - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ point out that in the New Zealand, Statistics New Zealand have recently changed how they measure net migration, with the new data suggesting the resident population comprises around 50,000 fewer people than previously thought.

Key Quotes

“We don’t think implications for how we view the economy will be large. But one thing’s for sure, the susceptibility of these data to large revisions will make it difficult to gauge the pulse of the migration cycle – an important element of domestic demand in the economy – in anything remotely resembling real time.”

“The week ahead brings the last of the major Q4 GDP partials: wholesale trade, the economic survey of manufacturing, and the value of building work put in place. So far we’re seeing some mild downside risk to our preliminary pick of 0.6% q/q for GDP growth.”