BOE’s Tenreyro: GBP would likely appreciate after a smooth Brexit, which would limit inflation pressure

The Bank of England (BOC) MPC member Silvana Tenreyro is on the wires now, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech in Glasgow.

Key Headlines:

Disorderly Brexit more likely to require loosening of monetary policy than tightening.

Easy to envisage other scenarios requiring opposite response.

Sterling would likely appreciate after a smooth Brexit, which would limit inflation pressure.

Will need a small amount of tightening over next 3 years after smooth Brexit.

Before voting for rate hikes, need to be confident of demand growing faster than supply, increase in domestic inflation pressure.

I suspect UK economy ended 2018 with some amount of spare capacity.

Supply in UK has been growing in line with demand over past couple of years, if not slightly faster.

Trade tensions, US tariffs on China are biggest drivers of global slowdown.