When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board’s 5th March meeting are due on Tuesday after the central bank, as widely expected, left the official cash rate at 1.50% at its latest meeting, unchanged yet again. The minute statement is less likely to be anything particularly market moving given previously conveyed dovish tone from the monetary policy statement and speeches from the RBA Governor are already factored in. So, the main focus will stay on how the central bank justifies its cash rate position as "more evenly balanced than previously."

Ahead of the release, analysts at Westpac say,

The minutes from the RBA Board’s 6 March meeting are due at 11:30 am Syd/8:30 am Sing/HK. The statement on the day was reasonably upbeat, repeating the forecast for the Australian economy to grow 3% in 2019, “supported by rising business investment, higher levels of spending on public infrastructure and increased employment.” The meeting was a day before Q4 GDP data that printed weaker than RBA expectations, which limits the value of the discussion on growth at least. Commentary on housing will also be noted with interest.

On the other hand, TD Securities was of the view that the release is more likely to be a non-event as it’s report said,

RBA Minutes for the 5 Mar Board meeting are released and unlikely to provide new news aside from the reiteration of balanced risks to the outlook.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

In light of sluggish Australian GDP and dovish comments favoring a rate-cut from the RBA Governor Philip Lowe, any signals for future policy change and/or downside economic risk could drag the AUD/USD to Thursday’s low near 0.7040 with 0.7000 and 0.6980 being follow-on important supports. However, a repeat of the earlier emphasis on upbeat investment scenario and employment reports may as well help the pair to confront 0.7135-40 resistance confluence comprising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and a descending trend-line stretched since January-end.

Key notes:

AUD/USD erases daily gains, settles below 0.71

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie trading at daily lows

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.