Canada: We expect inflation to firm slightly to 1.5% in February vs 1.4% in January - TDS

"We expect inflation to firm slightly to 1.5% in February vs 1.4% in January, reflecting a 0.7% increase in prices on the month," TD Securities analysts said previewing this week's inflation data from Canada.

Key quotes

"Gasoline prices lend a strong boost (+4.0% m/m), allowing for a lower drag from overall energy price deflation. We expect solid gains in food prices (+0.3% m/m) on the back of the weakening currency and stronger US prices. Such gains push food price inflation higher to 3.1% y/y."

"Core inflation measures are likely to be stable to lower. We expect unchanged BoC core metrics on average (1.9%) with risks skewed to 1.8%. For exclusion based measures, our forecast assumes a slip in CPIXFE (ex food and energy) to 1.8% from 1.9%.