8 May 2014
AUD/USD eyes Australian jobs - Arab Bank
FXStreet (Bali) - The AUD/USD, after edging lower in what seems to be a corrective phase following the strong rise out of a downward channel last Tuesday, is set to see increased volatility in Asia today, as the market positions for the Australian jobs report, notes David Scutt, Treasury Dealer at Arab Bank.
Key Quotes
"A lacklustre session for the AUDUSD overnight with the pair drifting in a narrow range of .9319-49 throughout. While non-eventful, that description is unlikely to apply to today’s trading session with unemployment data from the ABS, a notoriously volatile release, set to see the overnight range smashed one-way-or-another."
"Given markets now expect the data to outperform, the last two releases have beaten expectations while forward-looking indicators such as the ANZ job ads survey continue to strengthen, it’s clear that the risks heading into this event are clearly to the downside. After that has passed, the Aussie will have to contend with Chinese trade figures due out at Midday with literally any outcome possible given volatility in the data of late. Support is located at .9317, .9305 and below .9280 with resistance located at .9350, .9368-77 and .9425."
"The domestic data deluge comes to its crescendo today with the release of April labour force statistics at 1.30 GMT. Having surprised with a surprisingly-strong result in March, economists expect a less-bullish outcome today with net job creation of 9.5k tipped with unemployment expected to rise to 5.9% after plummeting to 5.8% previously.
"As you would expect, all eyes will be on the Chinese trade released around midday AEST with economists looking for exports and imports to have contracted 2.0% in the year to April, an improvement on the -6.6% and -11.3% falls of March, with the trade surplus expected to swell to $18.2b from $7.7b seen previously. Given the augmentation fake invoicing has had on the data of late, expect the unexpected when it hits the screens later in the session."
Key Quotes
"A lacklustre session for the AUDUSD overnight with the pair drifting in a narrow range of .9319-49 throughout. While non-eventful, that description is unlikely to apply to today’s trading session with unemployment data from the ABS, a notoriously volatile release, set to see the overnight range smashed one-way-or-another."
"Given markets now expect the data to outperform, the last two releases have beaten expectations while forward-looking indicators such as the ANZ job ads survey continue to strengthen, it’s clear that the risks heading into this event are clearly to the downside. After that has passed, the Aussie will have to contend with Chinese trade figures due out at Midday with literally any outcome possible given volatility in the data of late. Support is located at .9317, .9305 and below .9280 with resistance located at .9350, .9368-77 and .9425."
"The domestic data deluge comes to its crescendo today with the release of April labour force statistics at 1.30 GMT. Having surprised with a surprisingly-strong result in March, economists expect a less-bullish outcome today with net job creation of 9.5k tipped with unemployment expected to rise to 5.9% after plummeting to 5.8% previously.
"As you would expect, all eyes will be on the Chinese trade released around midday AEST with economists looking for exports and imports to have contracted 2.0% in the year to April, an improvement on the -6.6% and -11.3% falls of March, with the trade surplus expected to swell to $18.2b from $7.7b seen previously. Given the augmentation fake invoicing has had on the data of late, expect the unexpected when it hits the screens later in the session."