8 May 2014
EMEA EM Express: Ruble and hryvnia gain on Putin's pledges to withdraw forces from Ukrainian border
FXStreet (Łódź) - Russian stocks and the ruble advanced on Wednesday following Vladimir Putin's announcement that he was withdrawing troops stationed close to the Ukrainian border. The Russian president also called for putting off the referendum on the autonomy of Ukraine's south-eastern regions scheduled for this weekend.
In exchange Kiev should stop its military operation against pro-Russian separatists, as Putin suggested during a meeting with OSCE chairman Didier Burkhalter in Moscow.
This seemingly positive gesture on the part of Moscow was dismissed by Ukraine's interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk as "hot air." Polish PM Donald Tusk recommended being cautious about the unconfirmed pullout of Russian forces, while Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier took Putin's referendum comments at face value, suggesting that they were was a “sign of hope.”
The markets were also upbeat about the recent news, with the Russian MICEX Index climbing 3.4 percent to 1,363.48 on Wednesday. The ruble strengthened 1.1% to 41.2461 against the central bank’s target dollar-euro basket. Also Ukrainian stocks as well as the hryvnia advanced.
Meanwile, a EU official signaled on Thursday that EU foreign ministers were considering an extension of sanctions against Russia so that they would encompass companies, for the time being onlt those located in Crimea. The decision on the sanctions could be taken as soon as thjis Monday.
According to the latest reports the Donetsk People's Republic has already rejected the possibility of postponing the independence referendum planned for 11May.
Economic data
On Thursday Hungary and Turkey released better than expected March Industrial Production data.
On an annual basis Hungary recorded 10.6% growth, considerably stronger that February's 8.2% rise and above forecasts of a 8% increase
Turkey's year-on-year Industrial Production grew 4.2%, down from 4.9%, but above expectations of +3.9%.
Also on Thursday Hungary informed that its trade surplus of €765.9M registered in February narrowed to €675.0M in March.
Polish FX reserves, published by the National Bank of Poland on Wednesday, showed a slight decrease in April to €74.2B from €74.8B in March.
Technicals
On Thursday the Russian ruble continued to rally, rising 0.1% to 41.0293 against the central bank’s target dollar-euro basket. USD/RUB was up 0.53% at 35.1195 at the moment of writing.
On Wednesday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was at 35 at the last close, and has risen to 60 so far today. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.8172, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.6375.
USD/UAH was unchanged at 11.65. Yesterday the pair's daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index overbought. RSI was at 59 at the last close.
In exchange Kiev should stop its military operation against pro-Russian separatists, as Putin suggested during a meeting with OSCE chairman Didier Burkhalter in Moscow.
This seemingly positive gesture on the part of Moscow was dismissed by Ukraine's interim PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk as "hot air." Polish PM Donald Tusk recommended being cautious about the unconfirmed pullout of Russian forces, while Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier took Putin's referendum comments at face value, suggesting that they were was a “sign of hope.”
The markets were also upbeat about the recent news, with the Russian MICEX Index climbing 3.4 percent to 1,363.48 on Wednesday. The ruble strengthened 1.1% to 41.2461 against the central bank’s target dollar-euro basket. Also Ukrainian stocks as well as the hryvnia advanced.
Meanwile, a EU official signaled on Thursday that EU foreign ministers were considering an extension of sanctions against Russia so that they would encompass companies, for the time being onlt those located in Crimea. The decision on the sanctions could be taken as soon as thjis Monday.
According to the latest reports the Donetsk People's Republic has already rejected the possibility of postponing the independence referendum planned for 11May.
Economic data
On Thursday Hungary and Turkey released better than expected March Industrial Production data.
On an annual basis Hungary recorded 10.6% growth, considerably stronger that February's 8.2% rise and above forecasts of a 8% increase
Turkey's year-on-year Industrial Production grew 4.2%, down from 4.9%, but above expectations of +3.9%.
Also on Thursday Hungary informed that its trade surplus of €765.9M registered in February narrowed to €675.0M in March.
Polish FX reserves, published by the National Bank of Poland on Wednesday, showed a slight decrease in April to €74.2B from €74.8B in March.
Technicals
On Thursday the Russian ruble continued to rally, rising 0.1% to 41.0293 against the central bank’s target dollar-euro basket. USD/RUB was up 0.53% at 35.1195 at the moment of writing.
On Wednesday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was at 35 at the last close, and has risen to 60 so far today. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.8172, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.6375.
USD/UAH was unchanged at 11.65. Yesterday the pair's daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index overbought. RSI was at 59 at the last close.