Risk of general election rises amid Brexit stalemate – Goldman Sachs

Analysts at the US investment banking giant, Goldman Sachs, warn markets that the risk of a general election in the UK has intensified following the rejection of all the four indicative votes by the UK parliament a day before.

The US bank maintains their current probability on the various Brexit outcomes.

Key Details:

“Modified Brexit deal now seen at 45% versus previously seen at 50%.

No Brexit via second referendum seen at 40% versus previously seen at 35%.

No-deal Brexit seen at 15% versus unchanged from the previous.

"Risks around the timing of the ratification of that modified Brexit deal are now skewed towards a long Article 50 extension (of greater than one year) rather than a short extension (of fewer than three months). A long extension of this kind would require UK participation in elections to the European Parliament."