When are the US durable goods orders data and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US durable goods orders overview

Tuesday's US economic docket highlights the release of durable goods orders data for the month of February. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the monthly report at 12:30 GMT and consensus estimates predict a 1.8% m/m fall during the reported month, down from a downwardly revised 0.3% rise in the previous month. Excluding transportation items - core durable goods orders, which tend to have a broader impact than the volatile headline figures are anticipated to rise 0.2% in February as against January's adjusted 0.2% fall.

As Joseph Trevisani, FXStreet's own Senior Analyst explained: “The relative weakness in the February retail sales figures, missing forecasts by 0.5% in the overall number, and 0.6% in the control group might argue for lowering expectations in its sub-category of durable goods. But the large upward revision in the January sales numbers and the potential for positive adjustments to February’s results bring the balance to neutral.  On the other hand, better performance in the February durable statistics is a strong hint that the retail numbers are understated.”

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction is likely to be in the range of 20-25 pips during the first 15-minutes in case of a deviation from +0.36 to -0.51 and could extend up to 51-55 pips in the following 4-hours. 

EUR/USD important levels to watch

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers some important technical levels ahead of the important release: “The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the 21-month low of 1.1176 is also the confluence of the Pivot Point one-week Support 1, the PP one-day S2, and the Bollinger Band one-day Lower. On the downside, the only noteworthy support area below 1.1176 is 1.1115 which is the PP one-month S1.”

“Resistance is also close and it is a bit softer. At 1.1221 we see a dense cluster of levels including the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, the previous yearly low, the Simple Moving Average 100-15m, the SMA 10-4h, the BB 15min-Upper, the SMA 5-4h, the previous 4h-high, and the BB 1h-Middle. Further above, significant resistance awaits at 1.1285 which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, the SMA 200-1h, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, the PP 1d-R3, and the BB 1d-Middle,” he added further.

Key Notes

   •  US Durable Goods Preview: Following retail lower?

   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Driven down by 3 factors, but oversold conditions could save it

   •  EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rising odds for a test of 1.1176, 2019 lows

About US durable goods orders

The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.