US: Focus on PCE inflation and income-spending data – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are anticipating March personal spending to have closed the quarter on a strong note and advanced at its fastest pace since Sep 2017 at 0.8% m/m, up from 0.2% in Feb (also TD forecast).

Key Quotes

“In the details, we expect a 0.4% m/m increase in services spending to be the main driver of the March rebound, with a rise in spending on both durables and nondurables also helping on the headline. Moreover, we forecast income to rise 0.4% m/m, a stronger pace than in both Jan and Feb.”

“The core PCE deflator is expected to come in on the weaker side in February and March, largely reflecting the lower-than-expected core PCE print for Q1 released on Friday. The consensus expects the annual rate to dip marginally to 1.7% in March from 1.8% in January.”