14 May 2014
AUD/USD: Next key resistance at 0.9450/0.9550 - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - FX Strategists at JP Morgan Securities warn that the next area of resistance at 0.9450/0.9550 in the AUD/USD should prove a more difficult obstacle to overcome, although recognizing that if a break is achieved, an extension to .9758 October peak is likely.
Key Quotes
"While the rally from the January low for AUD/USD stays resilient, the next line of critical resistance levels should be a more difficult hurdle to exceed."
"In this regard, we sense a corrective phase is close in line with the current overbought framework. The key test enters at the .9450/.9550 resistance zone which includes the November highs and the 76.4% retracement of the decline from the October peak. Importantly, AUD/USD has been effective in holding key support levels highlighted by the .9200/.9130 zone."
"This area represents the May/April lows, 38.2% retracement from January, the 200-day moving average and the late- March breakout zone. Given the confluence of support in this area, violations are necessary to confirm a deeper retracement. In this case, downside break would allow for a closer test of the .8900/.8850 area (76.4% retracement)."
"Clearly, an extension above the .9550 area would suggest the underlying uptrend is stronger than anticipated suggesting a closer test of the .9758 October peak is likely to develop."
Key Quotes
"While the rally from the January low for AUD/USD stays resilient, the next line of critical resistance levels should be a more difficult hurdle to exceed."
"In this regard, we sense a corrective phase is close in line with the current overbought framework. The key test enters at the .9450/.9550 resistance zone which includes the November highs and the 76.4% retracement of the decline from the October peak. Importantly, AUD/USD has been effective in holding key support levels highlighted by the .9200/.9130 zone."
"This area represents the May/April lows, 38.2% retracement from January, the 200-day moving average and the late- March breakout zone. Given the confluence of support in this area, violations are necessary to confirm a deeper retracement. In this case, downside break would allow for a closer test of the .8900/.8850 area (76.4% retracement)."
"Clearly, an extension above the .9550 area would suggest the underlying uptrend is stronger than anticipated suggesting a closer test of the .9758 October peak is likely to develop."