US: NFP likely to trend modestly lower to 170k in April - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the US payrolls to trend modestly lower to 170k in April, following the near-200k print in the previous month.

Key Quotes

“In particular, while we expect a minor rebound in manufacturing jobs following two disappointing payroll prints, this is likely to be more than offset by a deceleration back to trend in job creation in the services sector, following a stronger-than-expected bump in March. That said, the blowout ADP employment report creates upside risks for another stronger-than-expected pace of service sector job creation in April.”

“All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate ticked down a tenth to 3.7%, while wages are expected to rise 0.2% m/m. This should leave the annual print unchanged at 3.2%.”