UK: Core inflation likely to pick up to 2.0% - TDS

TD Securities analysts point out that UK’s April inflation is released, and they are looking for core inflation to pick up to 2.0% y/y (consensus: 1.9%) while headline inflation jumps to 2.2% y/y (consensus: 2.2%, BoE: 2.2%).

Key Quotes

“Easter effects will likely artificially boost the core number in April on stronger travel prices in 2019 vs 2018 (which saw an earlier Easter), while the Ofgem price cap lift will lead to a jump in energy prices that is likely to be sustained until a downward adjustment to the cap in October.”