US NFP amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts point out that in the US, the jobs report for June is due out and will be a key event for today’s session.

Key Quotes

“Overall, the labour market has started to show some weakness, so we think it is important to keep an eye on employment growth, which is an important recession indicator, in our view. The average monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls has declined to 164,000 this year, from 223,000 in 2018. We expect employment growth to come in around 175,000. We estimate average hourly earnings rose +0.20% m/m in June, unchanged at 3.1% y/y.”

“The tense situation between Iran and the west may escalate further after the UK seized an Iranian tanker carrying oil to Syria in violation of the European and US sanctions. Furthermore, Iran has set a deadline of Sunday for European countries to provide economic assurances to the country and hence chose their sides against the US. If not, Iran will restart enrichment of Uranium, increasing the risk of an adverse US action.”

“Greece is holding general elections on Sunday, with the Conservative party widely expected to win back power from the Leftish party Syriza. The Conservative party has promised a series of tax cuts to help stimulate the Greek economy that is still curtailed by the long adjustment process after the debt crisis.”