Singapore: Another dire exports data - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that Singapore’s revealed another dire exports release, with non-oil domestic exports falling by -17.3% y/y (market -9.6% y/y) in June from a downwardly revised -16.3% y/y in May.

Key Quotes

“On a monthly basis exports dropped by a sharp -7.6% SA m/m. Electronics exports were once again very soft, falling -31.9% y/y (market -22%) from a downwardly revised -31.6% y/y in May.”

“What does this all mean? Risks of a recession are rising, with the surprisingly large drop in GDP in Q1 (-3.4% q/q) highlighting that worsening global trade conditions are hitting Singapore’s economy hard. SGD looks vulnerable against this backdrop and we think MAS is increasingly likely to ease its policy stance in October.”