USD/JPY may test levels below 105.00 – CitiBank

In their weekly strategy report, analysts at Citibank, point out that the Japanese yen could appreciate further against the US Dollar over the next days. 

Key Quotes:

“USD/JPY reaches the bottom of descending channel and fell to oversold territory. The pair may test 104.56-104.87 after consolidation with the resistance at 107.75.”

“Yen’s rapid appreciation may make the policymakers do the oral interventions and limit yen’s performance. If USD/JPY lower further to 105 level, BoJ may become more dovish which may put some pressure on Yen.”

“Given there hasn’t been material JPY strength yet (USD/JPY remains >100), in our assumptions, we continue to believe that the Bank of Japan will maintain its neutral stance against the growing headwinds of dovish policy from other major G10 central banks. This is keeping us constructive on JPY, as the “stealthy taper” (interpreted as YoY changes to the BoJ balance sheet) continues into 2020.”

“We now see FX intervention by Trump Administration to weaken USD as possible. It seems unlikely that the Administration would order intervention and then stop before taking the $ back to the averages, maybe around EUR/$ 1.20 and $/Y 100.”