Russia: CBR likely to cut its Key Rate by 25bps – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in line with the almost unanimous consensus, they expect the CBR to cut its Key Rate by 25bps to 7% at today's Board Meeting.

Key Quotes

“Since the July meeting, inflation developments have been positive with CPI inflation falling to 4.3% y/y in August from a prior 4.6% and, of course, the global financial environment remains dovish with the Fed likely to cut at the end of this month.”

“The biggest argument against easing since the July meeting is that USDRUB has moved around 5% higher, which could add to 'pro-inflationary' risks. On balance, we still think that CBR will cut by 25bps and cautiously admit the "possibility of further key rate reduction at one of the upcoming Board of Directors’ meetings".”