2 Jun 2014
Key events coming up Monday - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, walks us through the main events to keep in mind for Monday, with Australia carrying the most economic indicators, although non expected to cause much movement in the AUD ahead of Tuesday's RBA monetary policy decision.
Key Quotes
"Australia’s very busy data week kicks off with some more inputs to Q1 GDP and assorted April data. The ABS data are most important as usual, at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. Building approvals are a key part of the housing story for the RBA, with construction very job-intensive. Consensus is +2% m/m in April after -3.5% m/m but Westpac looks for -1%. The broad trend seems to be of approvals topping out after a very strong H2 2013, along with potential softness in April around the timing of Easter."
"Company profits often surprise and this report doesn’t fit very neatly into Wed’s GDP data, so impact should be limited. The median forecast is 2.5% q/q, Westpac 4.6%, with mining profits up 5%. Business inventories are probably the main risk to forecasts for GDP. We look for -0.5%q/q, a net zero contribution to growth. At this point we look for 0.9% q/q, 3.2% y/y on GDP."
"Also on Australia’s data calendar are May house prices, which should show a notable m/m fall, part of which is seasonal and the May TD-MI inflation gauge, which rose a lively 0.4% m/m, 2.8% y/y in April."
"Japan’s calendar features Q1 capital spending, expected to be up sharply y/y and the final May PMI. Thailand and Indonesia release May CPI while we will see May manufacturing PMIs in S Korea and India."
"Final May Markit PMIs are also due in Europe, with revisions occasionally having an impact on the euro. There will also be interest in Germany’s May CPI, expected up 0.1% m/m, 1.0% y/y. The US data calendar also holds some interest, particularly the May manufacturing ISM. Consensus is a solid 55.5 from 54.9 in April. April construction spending is seen up 0.6% m/m from 0.2% in Mar, with any surprise having implications for Q2 GDP after the dismal Q1 reading."
Key Quotes
"Australia’s very busy data week kicks off with some more inputs to Q1 GDP and assorted April data. The ABS data are most important as usual, at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. Building approvals are a key part of the housing story for the RBA, with construction very job-intensive. Consensus is +2% m/m in April after -3.5% m/m but Westpac looks for -1%. The broad trend seems to be of approvals topping out after a very strong H2 2013, along with potential softness in April around the timing of Easter."
"Company profits often surprise and this report doesn’t fit very neatly into Wed’s GDP data, so impact should be limited. The median forecast is 2.5% q/q, Westpac 4.6%, with mining profits up 5%. Business inventories are probably the main risk to forecasts for GDP. We look for -0.5%q/q, a net zero contribution to growth. At this point we look for 0.9% q/q, 3.2% y/y on GDP."
"Also on Australia’s data calendar are May house prices, which should show a notable m/m fall, part of which is seasonal and the May TD-MI inflation gauge, which rose a lively 0.4% m/m, 2.8% y/y in April."
"Japan’s calendar features Q1 capital spending, expected to be up sharply y/y and the final May PMI. Thailand and Indonesia release May CPI while we will see May manufacturing PMIs in S Korea and India."
"Final May Markit PMIs are also due in Europe, with revisions occasionally having an impact on the euro. There will also be interest in Germany’s May CPI, expected up 0.1% m/m, 1.0% y/y. The US data calendar also holds some interest, particularly the May manufacturing ISM. Consensus is a solid 55.5 from 54.9 in April. April construction spending is seen up 0.6% m/m from 0.2% in Mar, with any surprise having implications for Q2 GDP after the dismal Q1 reading."