2 Jun 2014
Specs increase Euro short bets - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ shared the CFTC specs positioning weekly summary, for the week ending 27 May 2014, highlighting the increase in short bets against the Euro.
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds increased their short bets against the EUR on expectations of policy easing at the upcoming 5 June meeting. Short positions increased by 10.4k contracts (worth USD1.8bn) to 12.2k (totalling USD2.1bn). The downward move in EUR/USD has been consistent with this positioning move. The market is now discounting a 15bp interest rate cut, the introduction of a negative deposit rate and some form of conditional liquidity for banks. Should the Governing Council fall short of expectations, we will see short EUR positions get unwound, leading to a near-term rally in the euro."
"The positioning change in EUR resulted in a reduction in net short positions against the USD for the third consecutive week. However, positioning in the ICE USD contract, which is a direct bet on the direction of the DXY Index, showed an increase in short positions. Positioning in USD based on the implied CFTC and ICE data have diverged since mid-April, an indication that views on the near-term direction of the USD is mixed."
"AUD net long positions fell after rising for two consecutive weeks, but remained elevated. Net long positioning decreased by 3.5k contracts (USD0.3bn) to 28.4k, in line with the slight fall in AUD/USD. However, given the recent sharp falls in iron ore prices, the risk of long AUD positions getting unwound is rising."
"Net long positioning in GBP rose for the second consecutive week (by 4.3k contracts to 117.6k), while short positions against CHF increased to the highest level since June 2013 at 9.1k contracts."
"The net long non-commercial position in gold fell by 24.4k contracts, the most for two months, as gold finally broke out of its range to the downside. Gross long positions were steady for the second week in a row while all the action was on the short side. Gross shorts increased positions by 24k contracts to 121k, the highest since 28 January. Crude oil, on the other hand, increased its net long positioning by 16k contracts to register 444k contracts."
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds increased their short bets against the EUR on expectations of policy easing at the upcoming 5 June meeting. Short positions increased by 10.4k contracts (worth USD1.8bn) to 12.2k (totalling USD2.1bn). The downward move in EUR/USD has been consistent with this positioning move. The market is now discounting a 15bp interest rate cut, the introduction of a negative deposit rate and some form of conditional liquidity for banks. Should the Governing Council fall short of expectations, we will see short EUR positions get unwound, leading to a near-term rally in the euro."
"The positioning change in EUR resulted in a reduction in net short positions against the USD for the third consecutive week. However, positioning in the ICE USD contract, which is a direct bet on the direction of the DXY Index, showed an increase in short positions. Positioning in USD based on the implied CFTC and ICE data have diverged since mid-April, an indication that views on the near-term direction of the USD is mixed."
"AUD net long positions fell after rising for two consecutive weeks, but remained elevated. Net long positioning decreased by 3.5k contracts (USD0.3bn) to 28.4k, in line with the slight fall in AUD/USD. However, given the recent sharp falls in iron ore prices, the risk of long AUD positions getting unwound is rising."
"Net long positioning in GBP rose for the second consecutive week (by 4.3k contracts to 117.6k), while short positions against CHF increased to the highest level since June 2013 at 9.1k contracts."
"The net long non-commercial position in gold fell by 24.4k contracts, the most for two months, as gold finally broke out of its range to the downside. Gross long positions were steady for the second week in a row while all the action was on the short side. Gross shorts increased positions by 24k contracts to 121k, the highest since 28 January. Crude oil, on the other hand, increased its net long positioning by 16k contracts to register 444k contracts."