Eurozone: Disappointing preliminary September PMIs – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities note that Eurozone’s preliminary September PMI estimates were extremely disappointing.

Key Quotes

“French manufacturing fell from 51.1 to 50.3 (mkt 51.2) and services from 53.4 to 51.6 (mkt 53.2). Details for France weren't too terrible, but there the new orders component was soft and that leaves us pessimistic about a rebound next month.”

“Germany's numbers were even worse though, with the Manufacturing PMI falling from 43.5 to 41.4 (mkt 44.0), a 123-month low, and the Services PMI from 54.8 to 52.5 (mkt 54.3), a 9-month low. Details of the report of very soft, with Markit noting that the manufacturing PMI is "signaling the sharpest decline in business conditions across the goods-producing sector since the depths of the global financial crisis in mid-2009." The auto sector was also "highlighted as a particular source of weakness" and "lower demand from abroad also remained a key factor." The report also noted the slowest rise in output prices in 3 years, which may raise an eyebrow or two at the ECB.”

“Overall, the weakness in Eurozone manufacturing in particular was quite surprising given the lack of bad news on the trade war front over the last few weeks. We thought that would have given some room for at least a short-term bounce in manufacturing sentiment, but it seems like the weakness is too far entrenched to benefit from a less dire news flow.”