ECB Minutes and US-China trade talks amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts point out that today the 13th round of high-level US-China trade talks kick off in Washington and continues tomorrow.

Key Quotes

“We still see a good chance of an interim deal after China yesterday said it was still ready to make such a deal despite the US blacklisting of Chinese companies. FT also reported that China would offer to buy 10 million tons of soy beans in return for the US taking coming tariff hikes off the table. We do not know exactly when statements will come out of the talks but a good guess is late Friday (European time).”

“The minutes from the recent ECB meeting are set to be interesting reading. Since the meeting there have been frictions within the Governing Council, which peaked with the resignation of ECB board member Sabine Lautenschläger. Furthermore, we have seen conflicting comments in the media, in which Chief Economist Philip Lane said that he did not believe that the ECB had delivered a big package and that it could cut rates further.”

“The US releases core inflation numbers and weekly initial jobless claims. We expect core inflation to stay unchanged at 2.4% y/y in line with consensus. Jobless claims are still at a low level around 220k, signalling a low rate of layoffs despite the slowing economy.”

“UK PM Boris Johnson is set to meet with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar on Thursday. A deal looks increasingly unlikely and an extension beyond 31 October and a UK election are more likely.”