RBI’s February rate cut at a coin flip– Reuters poll

According to a Reuters poll, A February Reserve Bank of India rate cut is at a coin flip levels, as almost half the economists surveyed believe the Indian central bank to announce a cut at that meeting.

Key Findings:

“With economic growth at its weakest in over six years, 49% of economists, 33 of 67, in a snap poll taken after the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision, predicted that would be a temporary pause and another cut would come in February.

The others expected no move at the Feb. 4-6 meeting.

A firm majority, over 80% economists said the RBI will cut rates by end-June, with the median forecast for a 25-basis point trim to 4.90%, and then stay on the sidelines for the rest of the year.

When asked what the central bank’s next move should be, instead of what the RBI will deliver, all but three of 45 economists also said a cut, with the median of those responses recommending 25 basis points.

And in response to a separate question, 35 of 52 economists said they were confident the RBI would cut rates soon. The remaining 17 contributors said they were not confident, mostly citing expectations for elevated inflation.”

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