US: Treasury yields to increase gradually – BNP Paribas

Analysts at BNP Paribas, suggests that in the US, they are expecting the Fed to cut its official rate twice in the first half of 2020 in reaction to a slowing economy, moderate inflation and high uncertainty.

Key Quotes

“This should support the medium term growth outlook, which is why, after an initial decline, we expect Treasury yields to increase gradually.”

“In the eurozone, the ECB’s state-dependent forward guidance and the sluggishness of the inflation process imply that the very accommodative environment will remain in place for a long time. The movement of bond yields will be very much influenced by what happens to US yields, although we expect the increase in Bund yields to be smaller. Sovereign spreads in the eurozone should decline.”

“We expect that the Bank of Japan will refrain from further monetary easing.”

“We expect little change in EUR/USD even though euro’s fair value is quite higher than current pricing.”