EUR/USD: Downside risks point to parity and lower – ANZ

Analysts at ANZ Bank have downgraded their EUR/USD forecasts and anticipate a test of parity in coming months.

Key quotes

“Unlimited QE means the US has a ready buyer for the huge pipeline of Treasury debt issuance, reducing the need for a higher risk premium or weaker USD. Low inflation is also benefiting the dollar.”

“Unless the euro area addresses the challenges facing its fiscally weaker members, or it starts to repatriate its stock of net foreign assets, we see the path of euro depreciation extending.” 

“The high speed, rollercoaster ride that has been the EUR/USD in 2020, is approaching this critical 1.05 area. There undoubtedly will be some support for the euro around that level, but we expect the depreciation will not stop there.”

“We are now forecasting a move below parity by the end of 2020.”